François Hollande believes that "the Prime Minister chose to hasten his fall"

If there were still any doubts surrounding the Socialist Party's choice in the confidence vote, François Hollande has added another layer to dispel them: in agreement with his group , he will vote against François Bayrou on Monday, September 8. "Rather than opening a discussion with the political groups in Parliament and a negotiation with the social partners, the Prime Minister has chosen to hasten his fall at the start of the new school year by seeking the confidence of an Assembly where there is no majority," he said in the Tribune Dimanche on September 7.

Although François Hollande did not vote in favor of censuring the government in January—he had hoped that this choice would open negotiations on pensions—this time, there was no question of repeating the same story. "The Prime Minister lacked the authority to overcome employers' opposition to reaching an agreement and gave in to pressure from the Élysée," he recalled. When Bayrou announced his vote of confidence, the Socialist still kept his vote vague: "I'm not saying that censure isn't an option at some point, it's likely today, but if there is to be a dialogue, it must be pursued to the end," he procrastinated on France Inter radio at the end of August. The uncertainties have now vanished, and Bayrou's latest attempts to woo the Socialists are not enough. François Hollande has already made his decision, and initiating such proceedings in an international context shaken by conflict is, according to him, "a new major error" after that of the dissolution.

Beyond the question of the Matignon tenant's political method, it is his "unbalanced and unfair" savings plan that will push François Hollande to precipitate the Prime Minister's fall. "The two periods during which public deficits decreased in relation to national wealth are the one during which Lionel Jospin governed, from 1997 and 2002, and that of my five-year term, from 2012 to 2017," boasts the former head of state, clearly stung by François Bayrou who had accused successive governments of having allowed deficits to spiral. Hollande also points out the weaknesses of the savings plan presented in mid-July. For him, a budget plan that "would not stifle growth" by damaging the purchasing power of the French meets three conditions present in the budgetary measures presented by the Socialist Party a week earlier .

The first is to change the trajectory of public finance recovery by 2030 (3% deficit is postponed to 2032, compared to 2029 for the current Prime Minister), the second is the implementation of the famous Zucman tax to "make the highest net worth contribute." In its alternative budget, the Socialist Party hopes to recover more than half of the approximately 27 billion euros in anticipated revenue with this tax (15 billion). Finally, François Hollande wants to involve "businesses in the overall effort to control our debt," while in July a Senate report suggested rationalizing the 211 billion euros paid to businesses.

While the Socialist MP is concerned about seeing the political crisis degenerate "into financial turmoil with rising interest rates" that would worsen the situation of public finances, for him, contrary to Nicolas Sarkozy's opinion, dissolution is not the solution. This option would pose a high risk of putting "the National Rally in Matignon." Regarding Olivier Faure, the Socialist Party's number 1, who has offered to take over from Bayrou , he considers the proposal legitimate: "As the first leader of a government party, he has a vocation to claim power," explains François Hollande, according to whom the Socialists hold the "key to stability." Whoever the Prime Minister designated after Monday, September 8, according to the former head of state, "a non-censorship agreement must be the only objective."

Emmanuel Macron's appointment of a Prime Minister, however, will have to be done "quickly," he believes. Especially since we still remember the transition period between Gabriel Attal and Michel Barnier, which was the longest since the Georges Pompidou government in the 1960s. Emmanuel Macron therefore "no longer has the right to make a mistake" in this choice, which will notably determine the adoption of a budget, but there is no question of calling for his resignation. Drawing on his experience, François Hollande wants to believe that the head of state "is aware of the pressure weighing on him."